| | Tonight is the final performance episode of American Idol. Count me as a fan of Bo Bice for the winner, but I'm not putting a lot of stock in either tonight's performances or the voting when it comes to the outcome.
The reason for this is the method being used to vote for and decide the winner. Each of the finalists will have four phone lines assigned to them for a four hour period. Presumably, each phone number can handle more than a few telephone calls at once, but everything will be equal. Equal time, equal lines, equal call handling capabilities for each line.
For the next four hours, those phone lines will be jammed. Phone calls will be coming in to every available line as fast as they can be piped in, registering votes so fast it boggles the mind. Each person voting can vote as many times as they wish.
The result of all of this will be a very close result. In the end, I believe that the final tally will be decided as much by variances in the electronics making up the phone and voting circuitry as anything else. It isn't that the support for these two is so evenly divided. I believe that the support is actually quite unbalanced, by human nature.
How could we get a more accurate tally of who has the most support? We can change the system completely. Here are my basic ideas.
- Use a single phone number for the voting and have each caller press a number to cast their vote. Have as many rollover lines as necessary to handle the votes, but everybody calls the same phone number.
- Only accept calls from phone lines that allow Caller ID information to be transmitted, and only allow each phone number to vote once. Phones with Caller ID blocked cannot be verified as unique, and therefore must not be accepted.
- Use a 1-900 number.
Let's propose an experiment. We get 50 people to line up in front of a ballot box labelled "Candidate A." We get 100 people to line up in front of a ballot box labelled "Candidate B." When we start the lines, each person takes a slip of paper from a pile and drops it into the box, then gets in the back of the line. For one hour, both lines will cycle as fast as they can, casting as many votes as they can. At the end of the hour, the number of slips of paper in each box are counted to determine the winner. What are the odds that the winner will be the candidate with the most people in line?
50:50
That's right, the odds that the candidate with the most voters will win is statistically dead even. That's pretty stupid, isn't it? That's the same system being used by American Idol.
In a real election, we use a single ballot box. Of course, we've replaced the ballot box with other voting systems, but each voter goes through the same line. Each voter also votes only once (theoretically). This allows each voter an equal opportunity for representation. Equal representation means a better vote, and it really is that simple.
Why should they use a 1-900 number? I believe that the 1-900 number represents a form of poll tax that is entirely appropriate in an entertainment venue. By charging a small amount to voters (say, $1), the fans who decide to vote will place a higher importance on their vote. If the vote is free, the voters do not have to take it seriously. If the voter has to pay a buck, they'll place a value on the ability to vote. Those who don't think voting is worth a buck just won't vote, and who needs them anyway?
By the way, I do think we should charge a buck to voters on Election Day, as well. As a "poll tax" goes, a buck is hardly oppressive. 99% of people who might find one dollar to be too much to pay would probably not hesitate to spend that same amount on a drink at the store, or as much as five times that for a day's worth of cigarettes.
Tomorrow night, I'll be watching to see who wins American Idol. I won't be fooled into believing that the vote is an accurate representation of the feelings of the fans, but I'll watch anyway. Maybe next year, the American Idol producers will institute a better system. Until then, I'll just have to enjoy the real world instead. |
| | Posted 5/25/2005 6:08 AM - 86 Views - 2 eProps - 2 comments
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